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Global Risks

Drawing on insights from more than 1,200 experts and policymakers worldwide, the Global Risks Report unpacks some of the key dangers in the short term, highlights escalating risks over the next decade and examines how competition for critical resources such as food and minerals may play out in alternate futures.

Global Risks

Drawing on insights from more than 1,200 experts and policymakers worldwide, the Global Risks Report unpacks some of the key dangers in the short term, highlights escalating risks over the next decade and examines how competition for critical resources such as food and minerals may play out in alternate futures.

Resources for right now
Among our latest insights, the Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast, a staple resource of executives working in aerospace and adjacent industries, is out now from Oliver Wyman. Our business experts at Marsh and the Oliver Wyman Forum have been getting a handle on the rapidly evolving risks associated with the metaverse and crypto. Our teams at Mercer are on top of employees’ expectations for flexibility and at Guy Carpenter they are tracking and reporting on the impact of climate change and the recent Turkey earthquakes. Plus scroll down for our special section taking a closer look at recent developments in the banking industry.

 

Global Fleet and MRO Market Forecast 2023-2033

The latest forecast marks the Oliver Wyman team's 23rd assessment of the 10-year outlook for the commercial airline transport fleet and the associated maintenance, repair and overhaul market.

The year’s research reveals how well aviation managed to perform in 2022, despite a litany of challenges. We’ve essentially moved beyond COVID-19, but if the industry expected 2022 to be a year of unfettered recovery, it was wrong. From Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and rising inflation to ongoing supply chain irregularities and labor shortages that made the industry curtail capacity, 2022 tested aviation’s resilience.

In this year’s report, Oliver Wyman examines and measures the impact of the many mounting pressures facing the industry, insights that should lead to well-informed business decisions and better navigation of the complex economic landscape.

More from Oliver Wyman > 

 

Beyond Play: As the Metaverse Evolves, Beware of New Risks

Today’s connected world has opened new opportunities for businesses and individuals. The emergence of immersive experiences, such as the metaverse, are taking connectivity to a new level. As technologies — including advances in connectivity speeds, 3D reconstruction, artificial intelligence and augmented or virtual reality — advance, the metaverse is providing new ways to engage users, explore new places and conduct business.

But organizations that have already established or are considering establishing a presence in the metaverse — as are more than a third of our survey respondents — need to think beyond the opportunities and consider the fast-evolving set of risks.

More from Marsh > 

 

The Path Forward for Digital Assets and Crypto In 2023

The collapse of FTX in November 2022 put a capstone on a terrible year of failures and lost market value in the world of digital assets. Did this prove that the whole crypto boom was just a speculative bubble or even a scam? Can serious people in finance now disregard the sector?

The short answer is no – and that’s a good thing.

The challenge ahead – for digital asset businesses, investors, developers, policymakers, and consumers – is to focus on that promise, identify and rectify the flaws, and develop rules of the road (both formal and informal) that offer protections for investors and users while fostering truly valuable innovation.

More from Oliver Wyman Forum >

 

Must-Do Strategies: Steps to More Flexible Time Off Programs

Work flexibility and time off are more important to employees than ever before. Many employers made changes on the fly to their time-off programs during the pandemic.

Whether you did or didn’t, now is a good time to take stock of your programs and policies and look for opportunities to improve competitiveness and ensure compliance. You should also be prepared to answer questions about a 4-day work week, because if you haven’t gotten them yet, you will!

Meanwhile, before we get sidetracked thinking about ways to spend that extra day off each week, here are four things employers can do to add flexibility to their time-off policies right now.

More from Mercer > 

 

Narrowing the Protection Gap: Climate Change and the Public Sector

As our climate continues to change, the number and severity of significant disasters is projected to increase. The disaster burden not only strains individuals, but governments as well. Disaster risk financing and public-private partnerships can open new opportunities to unlock risk capital and expand risk transfer solutions.

Partnering is key for tackling the most pressing challenges of the day and new thinking by insurance professionals, capital providers, policymakers and regulators is needed to create win-win arrangements.

In this episode of Fo[RE]sight, Guy Carpenter experts Joe Becker and Ruth Lux discuss climate change impacts on the public sector, facilitating risk transfer through resilience and how insurance professionals can help address growing protection gaps.

More from Guy Carpenter >

 

5 Areas That Will Shape Healthcare in 2023

After three years of upheaval, 2023 may be the year when the healthcare industry regains its footing. Doing so, especially during continued economic uncertainty, will require all parts of the industry pulling in the same direction — whether its further adoption of value-based contracting, more creative use of advanced analytics, or zeroing in on administrative efficiencies.

While predicting the future is always tricky, Oliver Wyman partners issued their 2023 forecast for the industry during two recent webinars. Here are five issues they identified as areas to watch.

More from Oliver Wyman Health > 

Natural Catastrophes

The CAT Resource Center from Guy Carpenter provides live event, post event, seasonal outlooks and periodic thought leadership regarding natural catastrophes, including hurricanes, winterstorms, wildfires and earthquakes.

Natural Catastrophes

The CAT Resource Center from Guy Carpenter provides live event, post event, seasonal outlooks and periodic thought leadership regarding natural catastrophes, including hurricanes, winterstorms, wildfires and earthquakes.

A closer look @ the banking industry
Recent challenges faced by the banking industry have raised concerns throughout the financial system and many aspects of the economy. Our Marsh financial and professional liability experts explore key insurance considerations, while the Oliver Wyman Forum examines how the bank runs are shaking the crypto markets and conventional finance. Find these and more insights below:
Key Insurance Considerations

While insurance solutions cannot eliminate every risk, they can serve as an important tool for at-risk or failed banks, their client companies and firms providing professional auditing, legal or other services to those banks. 

Key Insurance Considerations

While insurance solutions cannot eliminate every risk, they can serve as an important tool for at-risk or failed banks, their client companies and firms providing professional auditing, legal or other services to those banks. 

Market Developments

The collapse of three banks with close connections to tech and cryptoasset firms sent tremors through the industry. US federal regulators intervened and helped steady markets somewhat but revived old debates about the risks of moral hazard.

Market Developments

The collapse of three banks with close connections to tech and cryptoasset firms sent tremors through the industry. US federal regulators intervened and helped steady markets somewhat but revived old debates about the risks of moral hazard.

The Silicon Valley Bank Collapse – Navigating the Fallout

In a special-edition podcast, Jo Holden, Mercer’s Global Head of Investment Research and Advisory, is joined by David Scopelliti, Global Head of Private Debt, and Rupert Watson, Head of Asset Allocation, to discuss the impact of SVB’s failure on private and public financial markets and whether we believe the turmoil in the banking sector can be contained. Crucially, they explore the vital role of good governance in building resilient investment strategies able to weather an unpredictable future.

Bloomberg Markets: Americas Full Show (03/13/2023)

The yield on the two-year Treasury note plunged, on course for its biggest one-day slump in decades, while stocks rebounded from last week’s rout as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank reverberated across trading desks. "Bloomberg Markets" hosted by Kriti Gupta and Jon Erlichman speaks with industry experts including Oliver Wyman Vice-Chair and Partner Huw Van Steenis, former senior advisor to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. (Source: Bloomberg)

The big picture
Businesses are facing a turbulent year, marked by continued inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions and rising geoeconomic tensions:
Economic & Commercial Pressures

Global inflation, debt levels, energy costs and rate hikes are all factors creating conditions important for the public and private sectors to confront with concerted actions. 

Economic & Commercial Pressures

Global inflation, debt levels, energy costs and rate hikes are all factors creating conditions important for the public and private sectors to confront with concerted actions. 

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