This Moment

A closer look

@ The outlook for aviation

Acute labor shortages and inflation are the two biggest factors impacting the airline industry as it emerges from the pandemic. As the industry continues to recover, airlines and governments face the potential for a global shortage of nearly 80,000 pilots by 2032. How will the commercial pilot shortage impact travel over the next decade and what are the implications? Our aviation experts from Oliver Wyman, Geoff Murray and Khalid Usman, sat down with Arshiya Kapadia, our Global Director of Social Media, for a LinkedIn Live conversation.

Airline Economic Analysis

This year's report from Oliver Wyman outlines major macro-economic trends, the impact of the geo-political situation with the war in Ukraine and carrier recovery efforts in light of labor tightness and fuel cost escalation. 

 

Airline Economic Analysis

This year's report from Oliver Wyman outlines major macro-economic trends, the impact of the geo-political situation with the war in Ukraine and carrier recovery efforts in light of labor tightness and fuel cost escalation. 

 

The Pilot Shortage Will Only Get Worse as the Decade Progresses

In early 2021, Oliver Wyman forecast an imminent pilot shortage on the horizon. It seemed an incredible prediction at the time given the state of aviation, which had been almost grounded the year before by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Yet, with the rebound in air travel demand in 2021 and 2022, the lack of pilots quickly became apparent, starting in North America where the shortage is being most acutely felt. Our latest model, in part based on the Global Fleet & MRO Forecast 2022-2032, expects the region to face a shortfall of 8,000 pilots in 2022, about 11% of the total. That gap will grow to more than 29,000 by the end of the decade. 

Absent a downturn in future demand and industry efforts to bolster the supply of pilots, travelers should anticipate continued near-term cancellations and delays until airlines are better able to accommodate traffic with scaled-back flight schedules. These would more accurately reflect the size of the pilot workforce and are likely to involve further reductions in service to smaller markets. 

Read full article on LinkedIn > 

 

The Inflation Shift: Volume 4 | Air Travel and Aviation

Rising inflation is compounding the impact of the pandemic across the aviation industry. Usually inflationary pressures dampen leisure travel, but the leisure-led recovery continues to be strong as people prioritize experiences and take advantage of the summer travel season. The boom has come with some difficult-to-solve complications that are preventing airlines from fully capitalizing on the comeback.  

For carriers, escalating costs are putting additional pressures on the industry just as it is rebounding back. Additionally, workforce availability woes abound and have airlines pulling capacity out of the market so they can more reliably operate their schedules. Unfortunately, traveler experiences have been negatively impacted for many, and these labor shortages extend well beyond just the airline and into the airport, hospitality, and restaurant industries.

Volume four of The Inflation Shift examines how inflation is shaping the three big cost categories for the aviation industry – labor, fuel, and maintenance - and what consumers can expect from airlines in the coming months.  

Read full article on LinkedIn >

 

As access to space becomes more affordable, private investment in space activity is increasing. But new opportunities could be accompanied by an emerging set of risks.
Adam Sturmer, Global Head of Sales, Marsh Specialty Space Projects

Related insights from across Marsh McLennan

Aviation Sustainability: Our Future

The possible options and pathways for the aviation industry to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

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Approaches to Strategic Workforce Planning

From gridlocked airports to ever extending hospital waiting lists, getting supply and demand right has never been more critical to business resilience.

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How the Russia-Ukraine Conflict Is Impacting Insurance

An industry-level look at how the conflict is introducing new risks to business operations and impacting insurance as a result.

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Does Space Exploration Have a Sustainability Problem?

We've already witnessed the incursion of pollution into the Earth’s oceans. Now is the time to take steps so that space remains sustainable.

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@ Disaster resilience strategies
Bouncing Back From Shocks

Our Marsh McLennan climate experts discuss how addressing socio-economic inequality is the key to building resilience, the role of insurance in disaster recovery and how we should plan before a natural disaster to lower cost and severity.

Bouncing Back From Shocks

Our Marsh McLennan climate experts discuss how addressing socio-economic inequality is the key to building resilience, the role of insurance in disaster recovery and how we should plan before a natural disaster to lower cost and severity.

Flood Risk Index

Our updated webtool leverages research from international organizations and academic institutions to provide a global overview of flood risk and its potential implications on human and economic systems under different climate change scenarios.

Flood Risk Index

Our updated webtool leverages research from international organizations and academic institutions to provide a global overview of flood risk and its potential implications on human and economic systems under different climate change scenarios.

Natural Catastrophes

The CAT Resource Center from Guy Carpenter provides live event, post event, seasonal outlooks and periodic thought leadership regarding natural catastrophes, including hurricanes, winterstorms, wildfires and earthquakes.

Natural Catastrophes

The CAT Resource Center from Guy Carpenter provides live event, post event, seasonal outlooks and periodic thought leadership regarding natural catastrophes, including hurricanes, winterstorms, wildfires and earthquakes.

With more disasters comes a greater burden on responders to help disaster survivors in their time of need. We need to prioritize resilience actions to improve survivor outcomes.
Daniel Kaniewski, former Deputy Administrator for Resilience at FEMA, now Managing Director of Public Sector at Marsh McLennan
While climate has a role in certain regions and perils on loss outcomes, I think there's evidence to say that climate change is only one of many factors at play.
Jessica Turner , Managing Director, Catastrophe Advisory, Guy Carpenter

Related insights from across Marsh McLennan

How Healthcare Providers Can Meet the Climate Challenge

Standardized frameworks and tools can be used to identify risks and opportunities and assess their impacts.

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Why Organizations Need to Manage Workforce Health Risks

Firms must not be complacent and should ensure that well-being is a top strategic priority.

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Preparing for Disruption With Resilient Services

Companies can deliver critical knowledge services more efficiently by embracing distributed computing’s modular approach to allocating resources.

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Property Undervaluation Risks Escalate Amid High Inflation

What will it cost you to rebuild following a catastrophic loss? And is your existing property coverage still adequate?

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More Frequent Wildfires Could Drive Up Insurance Costs

Parametric options that pay fast and help offset any sources of loss will increasingly offer more options to complement traditional insurance.

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Disaster Resilience Center of Excellence

Insights, expertise and capabilities to help public sector leaders prepare for, mitigate against, insure and recover from disasters.

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